Timing the market is the stupidest thing to do, and Peter Lynch once said: "Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves."
Which is true, unfortunately, we will now do the stupid thing of timing the market. We are going to predict that the FDA will announce on 24th October after concluding their meeting on 22nd October ( USA Time ) that the search for a vaccine has ended and they've successful found a vaccine. Hollywood will then write a scipt on how USA saved the world, and get ready for a covid movie this 2022 or 2023 staring Alex Balwin as Donald Trump.
Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee October 22, 2020 Meeting Announcement [FDA Official Website | Once the meeting is concluded, they will announce the findings on no later than 24th of October].
CDC tells states to prepare for distribution of COVID-19 vaccine by Nov. 1 Vaccine could be ready for approval by October, CEO says
To Win The Election By Hook Or By Crook.
It is very likely the FDA will approve a covid vaccine for emergency use. This will be a political decision because Trump is the president and he wants to win his re-election this coming November. By announcing to the world a safe vaccine has been found under his Operation Warp Speed project, he can claim to have saved the world from this 'China Virus' nightmare and promised to make China pays her crime if he is re-elected as president, just like his promise on the Mexicans paying for the invisible wall he is building along the border.
What if we are wrong in our prediction? Fear not, time is on our side. Even if it is not made available on October 24th, it will be made available by the end of November or maybe early January 2021, for emergency use by the highly vulnerable groups, the elderly, the sick and first responder. The reason is because winter is coming and viruses spread easier during winter. Together with the flu virus, this combination of flu + covid will cripple the USA economy beyond repair. Therefore a vaccine must be made available for emergency use before Winter.
And The Billion Dollar Question Is, Which Tourism Stock To Invest?
Genting or Genting Malaysia, either one is good, Genting Singapore if you have a foreign trading account. Now, why not AirAsia or AirAsia X? Honestly, I think AirAsia is beyond repair. There are many articles written about AA and I do not need to repeat myself. I think the possible percentage gains from AA or AAX will be higher compared to Genting when a vaccine is found, but we try to play safe in the event we are wrong and no vaccine is available come October 24th. Therefore Genting or GenM is the safer choice as the price is unlikly to go down dramatically.
And What If We Are Wrong, No Vaccine This October?
The main reason for choosing Genting is because Genting is cash rich ( We know, their debt is high too and cash rich companies does not translate into good companies, but...), and we don't think they will go bankrupt anytime soon, not to mention they have a moat and no reason for them to raise RI or PP or whatever to dilute the shares like AA.
Probably a neutral bet will be Airport or Sunway, Airport for their monopolistic business, and Sunway because they are not as badly affected like Genting or AA. REITS that are into hospitality are also good buys, such as YTLREIT and SUNREIT. PAVREIT and IGBREIT recovered reasonably so there isn't much room to go up anymore.
Having said that, Genting Bhd (Not GenM) is still our preferred company to invest in anticipation of a vaccine this coming October 24th. If you've invested in Genting, just wait, the company is not going PN17 anytime soon. However, if you are timing the market and bought AirAsia, then you will have a sleepless night.
Genting 30% Limit Up?
Unfortunately, this is unlikely. Many new retail investors with glove as their first investment tend to think that is how the stock market works. My view when it comes to gambling in a casino is you are the luckiest man in the world if you lost your first bet, even more luckier if you lost the second time. Reason being that if you won the first time, and then the second or third time, you will think this is how life should be.
Because of glove, many new investors have this weird perception that investing in the stock market is about spotting which is the next counter that will limit up, no need technical charts, fundamentals or research. Stock is cheap if the price is 10 cent cheaper compared to yesterday. Not to mention they love to invest in blue chip companies, which doesn't really grow much anymore.
But Wait, What About China's Vaccine?
Personally, I believe China already has a safe vaccine ready for mass vaccination. Unlike the west, China doesn't have very strict rules on how a vaccine test must be conducted. This means it was probably conducted unethically on prisoners or inmates on death row, maybe those in concentration camp in XinJiang or North Korea. I won't be surprised if the real covid virus was purposely introduced to the test subject to understand the effectiveness of the vaccine. China probably has more data on the effectiveness of a vaccine than the west due to the lack of human rights.
One of the biggest concern with the vaccine is will it make the virus more aggressive? As seen with the death of hundreds of childrens in the Philippines due to the dengue vaccine. The only way to find out is to do it the unethical way, which China and some rogue countries will do whatever it takes. China Shows Off Homegrown Covid-19 Vaccines.
So, what is stopping China from announcing this good news to the world? Giving face, it is a Chinese thing to give face to others. China doesn't want to make Trump lose his face by being the first to have a vaccine, and I won't be surprised if China informs Trump that China will only release their vaccine after USA, not before. Why? In the event Trump wins his re-election and China never gives face, it will be a long and torturing 4 years as Trump couldn't care the consequences of his action as this will be his last term, not like he cares to begin with.
So, when Trump announce to the world a vaccine has been found, don't sell on this news. Because China will follow soon with their own announcement, and most probably the availability of billions of vaccine for the world. This will greatly speed up the global economic recovery.
The Risk Investing In Genting
PAS, and not to mention the self inflicted wound - RPT (Related Party Transaction). Because of PAS, who wants to hold Genting stock? If PAS wins next GE with UMNO, rest assure PAS will demand the casino to be shut down. Genting will survive without the casino as they have casinos in other countries, but it is not as profitable as the one in Malaysia.
O&G The Safer Bet
If votality and risk is not your cup of tea, investing in O&G counter for a potential in oil price recovery due to demand post-covid is ideal too. Below are 3 counters which we like.
- Serba Dinamik
Why these counter? Simple, they are profitable during MCO and covid, therefore their following quarters should be positive too. Don't expect a 30% limit up for these counters, unless you go into more speculative stock like UZMA. Good luck.