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Coronavirus vaccine won’t bring about fairytale ending to pandemic


The fact that many people around the investing world are looking into the success of vaccine. But truth be told by this professor in his CNBC interview.

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/09/22/vaccine-wont-bring-the-fairy-tale-ending-people-are-expecting-professor.html

Key point:

  •     As the coronavirus pandemic continues to haunt policymakers and the public around the world, a lot of hope is being placed in finding an effective and safe vaccine against Covid-19.
  •     The chances of finding an effective vaccine soon are not that high, one expert told CNBC.


Note: I will leave the main focus point at the bottom

I would like to comment on Old Man blogger in one of his many daily write ups.

Performance of the glove stocks in the last 6 months:

  1. Supermax went up from 80sen to close at Rm 7.60, an increase of 950%.
  2. Top Glove went up from Rm 1.80 to close at Rm 7.98, an increase of 433%.
  3. Kossan went up from Rm 4.50 to close at Rm 12.08, an increase of 268%.
  4. Hartalega went up from Rm 5.30 to close Rm 14.16, an increase of 267%.


The reason for Supermax to perform very much better than Top Glove and any other glove stock is that it has the best profit growth rate as show on the table below. In Supermax’s last quarter ending June, its quarter on quarter increase was 462% and year on year was 2,552%.

My comment:

Supermax did perform better in terms of profit growth because the June quarter was the poorest and the lowest in the 2019. That is not a good comparison. In fact, Supermax only had 24 billion capacity as I’m currently writing as compared with Top glove of 84 billion capacity. It’s very obvious Top Glove is the winner in terms of PROFIT AFTER TAX AMOUNT, no one cares if the glove company earns 50,000% profit after tax growth compared with previous quarter WITH only eg: RM1million

He has shares in Supermax and that’s why he’s blogging daily to ensure his shares got all the support he needs. No brainer there.

He’s always mentioning about investing correctly. I doubt that as in the last 4-5 months, he has bought and sold a few glove counters namely COMFORT, SUPERMAX and TOP GLOVE. Maybe he’s idea of investing is 1-2 months(longest) in one particular counter.

Summary:
It is possible that this Covid-19 would be around through 2022 and probably the last Covid-19 patients by 2025?

Regardless, glove is important.

You have 2 choices to make:

  •     BUY glove stock and ride through the super-profit period till 2021 end and enjoy the generous dividend.
  •     TAKE PROFIT 50% now or 100% now or later as you desire.


 

Focus point from interview (CNBC):
“I would see the vaccine as only helping (the situation),” Fisher told CNBC’s Capital Connection. “It’s not going to be the fairytale (ending) everyone wants it to be where we’ll have an 100% effective vaccine and 100% of people will take it, and they’ll all receive it over the course of a month and we can go back to our way of life.”

He argued that there was a “pretty low benchmark” when it came to the efficacy of a vaccine. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration, for instance, said at the end of June that it expected “a Covid-19 vaccine would prevent disease or decrease its severity in at least 50% of people who are vaccinated.”

“This means that for half the people that get the vaccine it wouldn’t work,” Fisher said. “Most people aren’t expecting this to be 100% effective. So I think you need to have the non-pharmacological interventions, such as the mask wearing and the limiting of gatherings and things like that for a long time to come.”

“It’s statistically very unlikely that the first one will be the best and what would concern me is that everyone would say: ‘Oh, it’s 50% effective, or 60%, let’s do it,’ and a few months later you might find one that’s 80% effective, or you find that the first one wears off after six months and you need to do boosters again,” he said.

“The WHO is hoping to be able to vaccinate 20% of the world by the end of 2021, and that’s already quite ambitious, it’s a huge exercise to vaccinate the world,” he added.